Archive for April, 2009

nhl_g_tavares_195

No, the Oilers aren’t going to get John Tavares.  Even if Tambellini wanted to, he would use the tired old line of “We tried to trade up.” Circa every year’s Kevin Lowe.

So, let’s look at the draft, who might be available, and what we might do in the first few rounds.  Let’s suggest the Oilers finish as they are now, with the 10th overall pick.  For me, the draft is a lot of fun, because I enjoy watching prospects, a former McKeen’s and HF writer will keep tabs on the kids regardless of whether or not he is covering them.

I have had a pretty good track record at the draft, and started dilligently following the kids for the 2001 draft. (For the record, I picked Kovalchuk to be better than Spezza.  😉 ) In 2002, I had the top 3 skaters ranked as they were picked. (Personally I would never draft a goalie in the first round.  Well, unless my head scout was about to jump off the building if I didn’t select his guy.)  I also had Alexander Semin as my next best player.

In 2003,  (Must we talk about 2003?)  I had it pegged well.  I had the three dmen ranked Phaneuf, Suter, Coburn.  My forward board was Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Parise, Carter.(I didn’t think much of Vanek…so you don’t get them all right.)

In 2004, I had a bad board.  I liked the big three at the time, Ovy, Malkin and Barker (But I thought that Barker might have a little trouble being the star the other two were.  I saw him as a bit aloof.  He seems to have matured now.).  I had Alexander Picard, Rob Schremp, AJ Thelen, and Alexander Radulov next.  For the record, I did have Mike Green higher than a lot of people….probably would have considered him in the next couple after Radulov.

In 2005, I did have Bobby Ryan right after Crosby.  I hated Pouliot.  I did have Brule as the third best forward and JMFJ as the top dman.  Marc Staal was next on my board. Then Setoguchi, then Bourret.  Didn’t like Lee, Skille, or Kopitar (Because I knew nothing about him).  I had Hanzal, Oshie and O’Marra all very close next.  Cogliano was not on my radar at all.

In 2006, my top seven was Johnson, Kessel, Backstrom, Toews, Staal, Okposo, Mueller.  Hard to go wrong with any of those guys.  Just for balance, I wasn’t that high on Claude Giroux.  Darn Flyers.

In 2007, I had Kane, JVR, Turris, Alzner with Voracek next and Gagner after.  Loved McDonagh, and RIP Cherepanov.  Hated the Alex Plante pick.  Big Max Pacioretty fan too.  Don’t like Sutter, thought Gilles didn’t have enough offensive go-go to pick that high.  I also liked Angelo Espo, but it looks like he will not cover the bet.  Also, I didn’t get any viewings of Riley Nash to have a solid opinion.  Hopefully he turns out.

In 2008, it is hard to gauge performance of my board, but Stamkos first, Doughty, Bogosian, Filatov, Schenn, Pietrangelo, Boedeker, Wilson, …..I don’t have Beach anywhere near my team.  I had no idea on Karlsson, and I am high on Colborne.  I thought Gustavsson was a terrible pick and didn’t have him in the first round.  I had Del Zotto right after Colborne.  Happy enough with Eberle, since at that pick he was BPA.

So with that, let’s take a look at a couple rounds of the 2009 draft early round projections.  The ISS Rankings of the top 30 are…

Name Pos Birth Date S/C Ht. Wt. Team League
1 Tavares, John C 9/20/1990 L 6.00 200 London OHL
2 Hedman, Victor LD 12/18/1990 L 6.06 220 Modo SweE
3 Svensson-Paajarvi, Magnus LW 4/12/1991 L 6.01 200 Timra SweE
4 Duchene, Matt C 1/16/1991 L 5.11 196 Brampton OHL
5 Schenn, Brayden C 8/22/1991 L 6.00 193 Brandon WHL
6 Kane, Evander C 8/2/1991 L 6.01 180 Vancouver WHL
7 Cowen, Jared LD 1/25/1991 L 6.04.7 218 Spokane WHL
8 Kadri, Nazem C 10/6/1990 L 5.11.5 180 London OHL
9 Kulikov, Dmitri LD 10/29/1990 L 6.00 190 Drummondville QMJHL
10 Josefson, Jacob C 3/2/1991 L 6.00 187 Djurgarden SweE
11 Holland, Peter C 1/14/1991 L 6.01.5 188 Guelph OHL
12 Schroeder, Jordan RW 9/29/1990 R 5.08.2 175 Minnesota WCHA
13 Ellis, Ryan RD 1/3/1991 R 5.09.2 183 Windsor OHL
14 Shore, Drew C 1/29/1991 R 6.02 190 USA Under-18 NTDP
15 Despres, Simon  LD 7/27/1991 L 6.03.5 214 Saint John QMJHL
16 Leblanc, Louis  C 1/26/1991 R 6.00 178 Omaha USHL
17 Moore, John  LD 11/19/1990 L 6.02 189 Chicago USHL
18 Ferraro, Landon  RW 8/8/1991 R 5.11 169 Red Deer WHL
19 Kassian, Zack  RW 1/24/1991 R 6.02.5 212 Peterborough OHL
20 Glennie, Scott  C 2/22/1991 R 6.01 180 Brandon WHL
21 Palmieri, Kyle  C 2/1/1991 R 5.10 191 USA Under-18 NTDP
22 Ashton, Carter  LW 4/1/1991 L 6.04 212 Lethbridge WHL
23 Ekman-Larsson, Oliver LD 7/17/1991 L 6.02 176 Leksands SweAl
24 Caron, Jordan  C 11/2/1990 L 6.02.5 200 Rimouski QMJHL
25 Leddy, Nick LD 3/20/1991 L 5.11 179 Eden Prairie MN-HS
26 Werek, Ethan  C 6/7/1991 L 6.00.5 191 Kingston OHL
27 Nattinen, Joonas  C 1/3/1991 R 6.02 183 Espoo FinJrA
28 Morin, Jeremy  C 4/16/1991 R 6.00.5 189 USA Under-18 NTDP
29 Kreider, Chris LW 4/30/1991 L 6.02 201 Andover MA-HS
30 Panik, Richard  C 2/7/1991 L 6.01 202 Trinec CzeE

Reconciling this with CSS Rankings (If you pick Euro and NA in the same draft spot)

1 Tavares, John
2 Hedman, Victor
3 Svensson-Paajarvi, Magnus
4 Duchene, Matt
5 Kane, Evander
6 Schroder, Jordan
7 Schenn, Brayden
8 Despres, Simon
9 Cowan, Jared
10 Josefson, Jacob
11 Moore, John
12 Holland, Peter
13 Ashton, Carter
14 Kadri, Nazim
15 Glennie, Scott
16 Ferraro, Landon
17 Kreider, Chris
18 Ellis, Ryan
19 Budish, Zack
20 Kulikov, Dmitri
21 Leblanc, Louis
22 Palmieri, Kyle
23 Rundblad, David
24 Caron, Jordan
25 Morin, Jeremy
26 Elliot, Stefan
27 Erixon, Tim
28 Olsen, Dylan
29 Kassian, Zack
30 Johansson, Marcus

What that leaves us with is with most likelihood, one of the following….Kadri, Kulikov, Josefson, Moore, Holland, Schroeder, Despres….they seem to all be in a pack around 8-15.  Who do you like?